Pitch Radar

Everton vs Chelsea: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win59%Everton
Draw19%
Away win22%Chelsea
Expected points, home1.95

What to expect

Everton are favourites: 59% to win against 22%. Attack against defence: Everton should create more, 1.86 expected goals a match against 1.61.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Everton7597.6+1.41.671.44
Chelsea10576.1+0.91.792.06

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →