The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Newcastle United: 52% against 23%. Attack against defence: Newcastle United should create more, 1.64 expected goals a match against 1.44. Read the table with care: Newcastle United have taken 3.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 1.11 | 1.87 |
| Aston Villa | 16 | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.