Newcastle United — Aston Villa 0:1

Newcastle United

0:1

Aston Villa

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Aston Villa was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Newcastle United	0	0.92	−0.9	0.67
Aston Villa	1	2.08	−1.1	2.13

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
35'	Johan Manzambi	Aston Villa	0.43	João Gomes

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
35'	Johan Manzambi	Aston Villa	0.43	goal, header
8'	Nicolas Jackson	Aston Villa	0.36	saved
82'	Ibrahim Mbaye	Aston Villa	0.28	off target

Shots: Newcastle United 16, Aston Villa 15; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 2.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Newcastle United 0.29, Aston Villa 1.11: a clear edge for Aston Villa. In the second half xG was Newcastle United 0.63, Aston Villa 0.98: a small edge for Aston Villa. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Aston Villa scored 1 from 2.08 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Newcastle United: +2.1 for the season (12 in the table). Aston Villa: +2.5 (10). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Everton — Chelsea 0:2Fulham — Hull City 1:0Brentford — Liverpool 1:2Manchester City — Ipswich Town 3:2

All EPL matches with xG →