Pitch Radar

Brighton vs Crystal Palace: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 7 · 18 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win76%Brighton
Draw12%
Away win11%Crystal Palace
Expected points, home2.42

What to expect

Brighton are favourites: 76% to win against 11%. Attack against defence: Brighton should create more, 2.29 expected goals a match against 1.62.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Brighton35109.2+0.82.581.73
Crystal Palace15545.4−1.41.522.00

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →