Brighton

Next match

Hull City · away, 22 Nov 2026
Win 60% · draw 21% · defeat 19%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 22 points from 18.2 xPTS (+3.8). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 4th in the league, but 2nd in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+4.1 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−7.8 vs xGA).

Attack. 2.19 xG per match — 2nd of 20 (league average 1.60): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 26 goals from 21.9 xG — 19% more than expected — the best finishing in the league. A small finishing bonus, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 1.48 xGA per match — 8th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 7 goals from 14.8 xGA — 53% fewer than expected — the luckiest goal in the league. The goalkeeper and opponent misses are carrying the team; keeping this up over a full season is rare.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.38 per match: expected pace 1.8 points per match vs the current 2.2.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.20 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.68. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.4 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Brighton and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league