Pitch Radar

Brighton

EPL · England · season 2026/27 · 4 matches · 2W 1D 1L
Place6 of 20
Points7
xPTS7.2
Δ points − xPTS−0.1
Scored / xG13 / 10.8
Conceded / xGA5 / 7.4

What the numbers say

Points. 7 points from 7.2 xPTS (−0.1). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 5th in the league, but 6th in the table. Points match the quality of play.

Attack. 2.69 xG per match — 1st of 20 (league average 1.64): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 13 goals from 10.8 xG (+2.2): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.

Defence. 1.85 xGA per match — 13th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 5 goals from 7.4 xGA — 2.4 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. By chances allowed the defence is league-average — once luck evens out, more goals will go in.

Playing to its level. Points (7) are close to the quality of play (7.2 xPTS).

4 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

047 1 4 round 1: 4:0, Points 3, xPTS 3.0round 2: 3:4, Points 3, xPTS 3.3round 3: 1:1, Points 4, xPTS 4.7round 4: 5:0, Points 7, xPTS 7.2
Points 7 xPTS 7.2 points and performance are level

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.75 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.44. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.2 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.

OpponentVenueDateExpected points
Arsenalhome2026-09-191.09
Sunderlandaway2026-10-101.44
Crystal Palacehome2026-10-182.49
Liverpoolaway2026-10-241.40
Manchester Cityaway2026-10-310.78

Other clubs of the league

Full EPL xPTS table →