Points. 7 points from 7.2 xPTS (−0.1). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 5th in the league, but 6th in the table. Points match the quality of play.
Attack. 2.69 xG per match — 1st of 20 (league average 1.64): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 13 goals from 10.8 xG (+2.2): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 1.85 xGA per match — 13th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 5 goals from 7.4 xGA — 2.4 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. By chances allowed the defence is league-average — once luck evens out, more goals will go in.
Playing to its level. Points (7) are close to the quality of play (7.2 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.75 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.44. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.2 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | home | 2026-09-19 | 1.09 |
| Sunderland | away | 2026-10-10 | 1.44 |
| Crystal Palace | home | 2026-10-18 | 2.49 |
| Liverpool | away | 2026-10-24 | 1.40 |
| Manchester City | away | 2026-10-31 | 0.78 |