Nottingham Forest — Arsenal 0:1

Nottingham Forest

0:1

Arsenal

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Arsenal was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Nottingham Forest	0	0.75	−0.8	1.19
Arsenal	1	0.92	+0.1	1.47

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
79'	Noni Madueke	Arsenal	0.04	Declan Rice

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
66'	Gabriel	Arsenal	0.37	off target, header, from a corner
25'	Gabriel	Arsenal	0.11	blocked, from a corner
71'	Declan Rice	Arsenal	0.11	off target

Shots: Nottingham Forest 14, Arsenal 9; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Nottingham Forest 0.14, Arsenal 0.26: about even. In the second half xG was Nottingham Forest 0.60, Arsenal 0.66: about even.

How it fits the season

Nottingham Forest: −8.6 for the season (16 in the table). Arsenal: +8.0 (1). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Brighton — Crystal Palace 5:0Bournemouth — Sunderland 2:0Leeds United — Manchester United 1:1

All EPL matches with xG →