The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Nottingham Forest: 42% against 30%. Attack against defence: level, 1.40 and 1.44 expected goals a match. Nottingham Forest are 4.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 13 | 5 | 5 | 9.2 | −4.2 | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| Arsenal | 2 | 5 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 | 1.88 | 1.09 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.