The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 37% home, 25% draw, 39% away. Attack against defence: Manchester United should create more, 1.70 expected goals a match against 1.44. Manchester United are 3.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.8 | 1.45 | 1.28 |
| Manchester United | 12 | 5 | 5 | 8.3 | −3.4 | 2.12 | 1.44 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.