Points. 1 point from 4.0 xPTS (−3.0). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 17th in the league, but 18th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−2.3 goals vs xG).
Attack. 1.56 xG per match — 12th of 20 (league average 1.64): an average attack for this league. Only 4 goals scored from 6.3 xG (−2.3): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 2.08 xGA per match — 18th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 7 goals from 8.3 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.74 points per match: expected pace 1.0 points per match vs the current 0.3.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.25 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.36. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.8 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | home | 2026-09-20 | 0.88 |
| Ipswich Town | away | 2026-10-10 | 1.10 |
| Hull City | home | 2026-10-17 | 1.55 |
| Coventry City | away | 2026-10-24 | 1.40 |
| Aston Villa | away | 2026-11-01 | 1.88 |