Pitch Radar

Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 9 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win40%Tottenham Hotspur
Draw24%
Away win36%Crystal Palace
Expected points, home1.43

What to expect

No clear favourite: 40% home, 24% draw, 36% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.58 and 1.68 expected goals a match. Tottenham Hotspur are 3.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Tottenham Hotspur20525.5−3.51.161.84
Crystal Palace15545.4−1.41.522.00

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →