Manchester City — Brighton 0:1

Manchester City

0:1

Brighton

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Brighton won against the run of chances: Manchester City created more (2.66 xG against 1.57).

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Manchester City	0	2.66	−2.7	2.00
Brighton	1	1.57	−0.6	0.82

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
10'	Yasin Ayari	Brighton	0.49	Maxim De Cuyper

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
10'	Yasin Ayari	Brighton	0.49	goal, from a set piece
87'	Jack Hinshelwood	Brighton	0.45	off target
21'	Iliman Ndiaye	Manchester City	0.38	off target, header, from a corner

Shots: Manchester City 21, Brighton 7; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 5 and 3.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Manchester City 0.78, Brighton 0.65: about even. In the second half xG was Manchester City 1.91, Brighton 0.91: a clear edge for Manchester City. Manchester City scored 0 from 2.66 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Manchester City: +0.1 for the season (3 in the table). Brighton: +3.8 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Chelsea — Manchester United 2:0Coventry City — Sunderland 3:1Hull City — Ipswich Town 2:2Bournemouth — Leeds United 2:0Brentford — Nottingham Forest 2:0Tottenham Hotspur — Crystal Palace 2:0Aston Villa — Fulham 1:1

All EPL matches with xG →