Chelsea — Manchester United 2:0

Chelsea

2:0

Manchester United

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Chelsea was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Chelsea	2	2.79	−0.8	2.16
Manchester United	0	1.39	−1.4	0.67

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
49'	Morgan Rogers	Chelsea	0.39	Romeo Lavia
63'	Cole Palmer (penalty)	Chelsea	0.76

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
98'	Valentín Barco	Chelsea	0.49	off target
18'	Bruno Fernandes	Manchester United	0.39	off target
49'	Morgan Rogers	Chelsea	0.39	goal

Shots: Chelsea 18, Manchester United 12; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 3 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Chelsea 0.62, Manchester United 1.29: a small edge for Manchester United. In the second half xG was Chelsea 2.17, Manchester United 0.08: a big edge for Chelsea. The edge in chances passed from Manchester United to Chelsea. Manchester United scored 0 from 1.39 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Chelsea: +3.2 for the season (5 in the table). Manchester United: −4.5 (18). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Coventry City — Sunderland 3:1Hull City — Ipswich Town 2:2Manchester City — Brighton 0:1Bournemouth — Leeds United 2:0Brentford — Nottingham Forest 2:0Tottenham Hotspur — Crystal Palace 2:0Aston Villa — Fulham 1:1

All EPL matches with xG →