Brentford — Nottingham Forest 2:0

Brentford

2:0

Nottingham Forest

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Nottingham Forest created more (0.96 xG against 0.83) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Brentford	2	0.83	+1.2	1.23
Nottingham Forest	0	0.96	−1.0	1.44

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
29'	Nikola Milenkovic (own goal)	Brentford	—
75'	Thiago	Brentford	0.59	Jaidon Anthony

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
75'	Thiago	Brentford	0.59	goal
53'	Ryan Yates	Nottingham Forest	0.29	off target, header
9'	Liam Delap	Nottingham Forest	0.12	off target

Shots: Brentford 7, Nottingham Forest 15; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Brentford 0.18, Nottingham Forest 0.48: a small edge for Nottingham Forest. In the second half xG was Brentford 0.65, Nottingham Forest 0.48: about even. Brentford scored 2 from 0.83 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Brentford: +0.9 for the season (8 in the table). Nottingham Forest: −8.6 (16). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Chelsea — Manchester United 2:0Coventry City — Sunderland 3:1Hull City — Ipswich Town 2:2Manchester City — Brighton 0:1Bournemouth — Leeds United 2:0Tottenham Hotspur — Crystal Palace 2:0Aston Villa — Fulham 1:1

All EPL matches with xG →