Alavés
ElcheThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Alavés are favourites: 57% to win against 21%. Attack against defence: Alavés should create more, 1.64 expected goals a match against 1.35. Alavés are 3.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions