The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Atlético Madrid are favourites: 67% to win against 15%. Attack against defence: Atlético Madrid should create more, 1.99 expected goals a match against 1.16. Read the table with care: Atlético Madrid have taken 4.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 18 | 9 | 7 | 9.2 | −2.2 | 1.20 | 2.05 |
| Atlético Madrid | 2 | 9 | 22 | 17.3 | +4.7 | 1.94 | 1.11 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.