Pitch Radar

Getafe vs Sevilla: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 11 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win35%Getafe
Draw33%
Away win33%Sevilla
Expected points, home1.37

What to expect

No clear favourite: 35% home, 33% draw, 33% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.20 and 1.30 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Sevilla have taken 4.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Getafe11786.7+1.30.901.54
Sevilla57138.3+4.71.061.50

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →