Sevilla

LaLiga · Spain · season 2026/27 · 12 matches · 5W 3D 4L

Place6 of 20

Points18

xPTS15.5

Δ points − xPTS+2.5

Scored / xG17 / 15.1

Conceded / xGA19 / 17.5

Next match

Sevilla

Real Betis

Real Betis · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 37% · draw 24% · defeat 39%

The match in numbers →

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

Real Betis 37%

Real Sociedad 31%

Málaga 60%

What the numbers say

Points. 18 points from 15.5 xPTS (+2.5). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 10th in the league, but 6th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+1.9 goals above xG).

Attack. 1.26 xG per match — 15th of 20 (league average 1.57): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 17 goals from 15.1 xG — 12% more than expected. A small finishing bonus, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 1.46 xGA per match — 10th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.57): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 19 goals from 17.5 xGA — 9% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.21 per match: expected pace 1.3 points per match vs the current 1.5.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Points 18 xPTS 15.5 points are 2.5 ahead of performance

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.50 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.57. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.8 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Opponent	Venue	Date	Win	Draw	Defeat	Expected points
Real Betis	home	2026-11-21	37%	24%	39%	1.36
Real Sociedad	away	2026-11-29	31%	24%	45%	1.17
Málaga	home	2026-12-06	60%	23%	17%	2.04
Elche	away	2026-12-13	37%	26%	37%	1.38
Racing Santander	home	2026-12-20	56%	22%	23%	1.89