Pitch Radar

Sevilla vs Osasuna: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 10 · 25 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win41%Sevilla
Draw28%
Away win31%Osasuna
Expected points, home1.51

What to expect

A slight edge to Sevilla: 41% against 31%. Attack against defence: level, 1.39 and 1.39 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Sevilla have taken 4.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Sevilla57138.3+4.71.061.50
Osasuna13789.1−1.11.271.71

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →