The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Villarreal are favourites: 72% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Villarreal should create more, 2.08 expected goals a match against 1.52. Villarreal are 6.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 10 | 10 | 12 | 18.3 | −6.3 | 2.39 | 1.43 |
| Real Sociedad | 5 | 10 | 19 | 13.1 | +5.9 | 1.62 | 1.78 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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