Points. 5 points from 9.0 xPTS (−4.0). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 2nd in the league, but 7th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−4.5 goals vs xG) and extra goals conceded (+1.0 vs xGA).
Attack. 2.63 xG per match — 1st of 18 (league average 1.65): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Only 6 goals scored from 10.5 xG (−4.5): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 1.25 xGA per match — 4th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.65). Conceded 6 goals from 5.0 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.99 points per match: expected pace 2.2 points per match vs the current 1.3.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.25 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 2.35. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 11.8 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | away | 2026-09-20 | 2.51 |
| Angers | home | 2026-10-10 | 2.40 |
| Lille | away | 2026-10-17 | 2.15 |
| Nice | home | 2026-10-24 | 2.76 |
| Lorient | away | 2026-10-31 | 1.94 |