Pitch Radar

Marseille vs Nice: match prediction

Ligue 1 · Round 13 · 5 Dec 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win57%Marseille
Draw20%
Away win23%Nice
Expected points, home1.91

What to expect

Marseille are favourites: 57% to win against 23%. Attack against defence: level, 1.80 and 1.68 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Nice have taken 3.3 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Marseille88129.8+2.21.842.24
Nice108117.7+3.31.111.76

Recent matches

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions