Points. 3 points from 5.1 xPTS (−2.1). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 9th in the league, but 13th in the table. Source of the shortfall: how goals are spread across matches: goal difference ±0 almost matches the expected −0.9, so points are slipping away in close games.
Attack. 1.66 xG per match — 7th of 18 (league average 1.65): an average attack for this league. Scored 6 goals from 6.6 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 1.88 xGA per match — 13th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.65). Conceded 6 goals from 7.5 xGA — 1.5 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. And plenty of chances are allowed near their own goal — without this luck they would concede far more.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.53 points per match: expected pace 1.3 points per match vs the current 0.8.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.75 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.38. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.9 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | home | 2026-09-20 | 1.04 |
| Troyes | away | 2026-10-10 | 1.53 |
| Angers | away | 2026-10-17 | 1.09 |
| Le Havre | home | 2026-10-24 | 2.00 |
| Toulouse | home | 2026-10-31 | 1.25 |