Toulouse — Le Havre 3:2

Toulouse

3:2

Le Havre

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Toulouse was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Toulouse	3	2.83	+0.2	1.75
Le Havre	2	2.16	−0.2	1.07

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
48'	Casper Tengstedt (penalty)	Toulouse	0.76
50'	Casper Tengstedt	Toulouse	0.32	Thomas Jørgensen
70'	Josh Maja	Le Havre	0.33	Sota Nakamura
78'	Thomas Jørgensen	Toulouse	0.31	Cristian Cásseres Jr.
87'	Mbwana Samatta	Le Havre	0.63

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
87'	Mbwana Samatta	Le Havre	0.63	goal
89'	Santiago Hidalgo	Toulouse	0.44	blocked
15'	Rayan Fofana	Le Havre	0.36	saved

Shots: Toulouse 14, Le Havre 18; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 5 and 3.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Toulouse 0.59, Le Havre 0.96: a small edge for Le Havre. In the second half xG was Toulouse 2.25, Le Havre 1.28: a clear edge for Toulouse. The edge in chances passed from Le Havre to Toulouse.

How it fits the season

Toulouse: −5.0 for the season (12 in the table). Le Havre: −8.0 (18). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Paris FC — Strasbourg 2:1Angers — Troyes 2:0Le Mans — Lorient 2:1Lyon — Rennes 4:0

All Ligue 1 matches with xG →