The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Akron Tolyatti: 46% against 24%. Attack against defence: level, 1.15 and 1.03 expected goals a match. Fakel Voronezh are 5.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Tolyatti | 13 | 10 | 8 | 11.2 | −3.2 | 0.93 | 1.24 |
| Fakel Voronezh | 16 | 9 | 3 | 8.6 | −5.6 | 0.82 | 1.37 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.