The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 36% home, 30% draw, 34% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.11 and 1.21 expected goals a match. Baltika Kaliningrad are 5.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg | 8 | 10 | 12 | 16.1 | −4.0 | 1.38 | 0.94 |
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 10 | 9 | 11 | 16.2 | −5.2 | 1.49 | 0.85 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.