The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Zenit: 47% against 25%. Attack against defence: Zenit should create more, 1.34 expected goals a match against 0.97. Read the table with care: Zenit have taken 4.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3 | 0.95 | 1.23 |
| Zenit | 3 | 10 | 21 | 16.9 | +4.1 | 1.45 | 1.00 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.