The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Baltika Kaliningrad was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 2 | 1.64 | +0.4 | 1.83 |
| Dynamo Moscow | 1 | 0.98 | +0.0 | 0.92 |
Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2 for the season (8 in the table). Dynamo Moscow: +3.5 (3). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.