Baltika Kaliningrad — Dynamo Moscow 2:1

Baltika Kaliningrad

2:1

Dynamo Moscow

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Baltika Kaliningrad was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Baltika Kaliningrad	2	1.64	+0.4	1.83
Dynamo Moscow	1	0.98	+0.0	0.92

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
56'	Nikolay Titkov	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.59	Nathan Gassama
73'	Brayan Gil (penalty)	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.75
75'	Arthur Gomes	Dynamo Moscow	0.29	Ivan Sergeev

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
56'	Nikolay Titkov	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.59	goal, from a corner
75'	Arthur Gomes	Dynamo Moscow	0.29	goal, header
31'	Arthur Gomes	Dynamo Moscow	0.13	saved

Shots: Baltika Kaliningrad 8, Dynamo Moscow 14; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Baltika Kaliningrad 0.14, Dynamo Moscow 0.38: about even. In the second half xG was Baltika Kaliningrad 1.51, Dynamo Moscow 0.59: a clear edge for Baltika Kaliningrad.

How it fits the season

Baltika Kaliningrad: −6.1 for the season (9 in the table). Dynamo Moscow: +7.3 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Akron Tolyatti — Rubin Kazan 1:2CSKA Moscow — Krylia Sovetov 1:1Dynamo Makhachkala — Lokomotiv Moscow 2:1

All RPL matches with xG →