The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Baltika Kaliningrad created more (0.48 xG against 0.32) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 0 | 0.48 | −0.5 | 1.40 |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 1 | 0.32 | +0.7 | 1.07 |
Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2 for the season (8 in the table). Lokomotiv Moscow: −0.9 (14). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.