The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.26.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg | 2 | 1.27 | +0.7 | 1.56 |
| Akron Tolyatti | 2 | 1.01 | +1.0 | 1.16 |
Orenburg: −4.3 for the season (11 in the table). Akron Tolyatti: −1.7 (13). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.