Orenburg — Akron Tolyatti 2:2

Orenburg

2:2

Akron Tolyatti

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.26.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Orenburg	2	1.27	+0.7	1.55
Akron Tolyatti	2	1.01	+1.0	1.17

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
35'	Gedeon Guzina	Orenburg	0.41	Dmitri Rybchinsky
74'	Dudu Rodrigues	Akron Tolyatti	0.55	Gilson Benchimol
77'	Gilson Benchimol	Akron Tolyatti	0.05	Yomar Rocha
82'	Alexandre Jesus	Orenburg	0.30	Jordhy Thompson

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
74'	Dudu Rodrigues	Akron Tolyatti	0.55	goal
35'	Gedeon Guzina	Orenburg	0.41	goal, header
82'	Alexandre Jesus	Orenburg	0.30	goal, header

Shots: Orenburg 14, Akron Tolyatti 10; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Orenburg 0.58, Akron Tolyatti 0.23: a small edge for Orenburg. In the second half xG was Orenburg 0.69, Akron Tolyatti 0.78: about even.

How it fits the season

Orenburg: −3.3 for the season (10 in the table). Akron Tolyatti: −2.6 (14). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Dynamo Makhachkala — Rodina Moscow 2:0Dynamo Moscow — Spartak Moscow 2:1Baltika Kaliningrad — Lokomotiv Moscow 0:1

All RPL matches with xG →