Baltika Kaliningrad — Spartak Moscow 1:2

Baltika Kaliningrad

1:2

Spartak Moscow

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Spartak Moscow was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Baltika Kaliningrad	1	0.56	+0.4	0.99
Spartak Moscow	2	0.94	+1.1	1.65

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
19'	Manfred Ugalde	Spartak Moscow	0.32	Mirlind Daku
22'	Andrey Mendel	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.04
48'	Pablo Solari	Spartak Moscow	0.33

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
48'	Pablo Solari	Spartak Moscow	0.33	goal
19'	Manfred Ugalde	Spartak Moscow	0.32	goal
93'	Vladislav Pospelov	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.12	blocked, from a corner

Shots: Baltika Kaliningrad 12, Spartak Moscow 6; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 2.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Baltika Kaliningrad 0.20, Spartak Moscow 0.61: a small edge for Spartak Moscow. In the second half xG was Baltika Kaliningrad 0.37, Spartak Moscow 0.33: about even. Spartak Moscow scored 2 from 0.94 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Baltika Kaliningrad: −6.1 for the season (9 in the table). Spartak Moscow: +1.5 (3). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Zenit — Dynamo Moscow 3:0Krylia Sovetov — Dynamo Makhachkala 1:4

All RPL matches with xG →