The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Spartak Moscow was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 1 | 0.56 | +0.4 | 0.99 |
| Spartak Moscow | 2 | 0.94 | +1.1 | 1.65 |
Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2 for the season (8 in the table). Spartak Moscow: +0.7 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.