Baltika Kaliningrad — Zenit 2:3

Baltika Kaliningrad

2:3

Zenit

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Baltika Kaliningrad created more (1.98 xG against 1.25) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Baltika Kaliningrad	2	1.98	+0.0	1.85
Zenit	3	1.25	+1.8	0.93

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
8'	Maksim Glushenkov	Zenit	0.02	Artem Karpukas
15'	Alexander Sobolev	Zenit	0.16	Pedro Henrique
21'	Brayan Gil	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.72	Konstantin Shiltsov
48'	Luiz Henrique	Zenit	0.66	Alexander Sobolev
80'	Ilya Petrov	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.97

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
80'	Ilya Petrov	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.97	goal
21'	Brayan Gil	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.72	goal, header
48'	Luiz Henrique	Zenit	0.66	goal, from a set piece

Shots: Baltika Kaliningrad 8, Zenit 11; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Baltika Kaliningrad 1.00, Zenit 0.29: a small edge for Baltika Kaliningrad. In the second half xG was Baltika Kaliningrad 1.10, Zenit 0.96: about even. Zenit scored 3 from 1.25 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Baltika Kaliningrad: −6.1 for the season (9 in the table). Zenit: +5.4 (1). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Rodina Moscow — Rubin Kazan 1:1Spartak Moscow — Fakel Voronezh 1:0Lokomotiv Moscow — Krylia Sovetov 1:1

All RPL matches with xG →