The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Baltika Kaliningrad created more (1.98 xG against 1.25) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 2 | 1.98 | +0.0 | 1.85 |
| Zenit | 3 | 1.25 | +1.8 | 0.93 |
Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2 for the season (8 in the table). Zenit: +2.9 (5). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.