The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A draw, but Rodina Moscow created more (1.23 xG against 0.66) — points dropped.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moscow | 1 | 1.23 | −0.2 | 1.80 |
| Rubin Kazan | 1 | 0.66 | +0.3 | 0.90 |
Rodina Moscow: −0.1 for the season (15 in the table). Rubin Kazan: +1.7 (6). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.