CSKA Moscow — Rubin Kazan 1:1

CSKA Moscow

1:1

Rubin Kazan

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A draw, but CSKA Moscow created more (1.96 xG against 1.11) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
CSKA Moscow	1	1.96	−1.0	1.93
Rubin Kazan	1	1.11	−0.1	0.85

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
5'	Ivan Oblyakov (penalty)	CSKA Moscow	0.75
57'	Anderson Arroyo	Rubin Kazan	0.07	Aleksandar Jukic

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
16'	Tamerlan Musaev	CSKA Moscow	0.73	off target
72'	Ilya Samoshnikov	Rubin Kazan	0.23	blocked
15'	Nikita Lobov	Rubin Kazan	0.14	off target, header, from a set piece

Shots: CSKA Moscow 11, Rubin Kazan 16; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was CSKA Moscow 1.68, Rubin Kazan 0.41: a clear edge for CSKA Moscow. In the second half xG was CSKA Moscow 0.27, Rubin Kazan 0.70: a small edge for Rubin Kazan. The edge in chances passed from CSKA Moscow to Rubin Kazan.

How it fits the season

CSKA Moscow: +2.7 for the season (5 in the table). Rubin Kazan: +2.1 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Fakel Voronezh — Baltika Kaliningrad 2:2Zenit — Lokomotiv Moscow 2:1Dynamo Moscow — Orenburg 1:0

All RPL matches with xG →