Fakel Voronezh — Baltika Kaliningrad 2:2

Fakel Voronezh

2:2

Baltika Kaliningrad

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A draw, but Baltika Kaliningrad created more (1.96 xG against 0.65) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Fakel Voronezh	2	0.65	+1.4	0.54
Baltika Kaliningrad	2	1.96	+0.0	2.25

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
12'	Ravil Netfullin	Fakel Voronezh	0.04	Aleksey Sutormin
50'	Butta Magomedov	Fakel Voronezh	0.34
73'	Egor Golenkov	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.29	Brayan Gil
94'	Brayan Gil (penalty)	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.75

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
50'	Butta Magomedov	Fakel Voronezh	0.34	goal
73'	Egor Golenkov	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.29	goal
86'	Axel Gnapi	Fakel Voronezh	0.14	off target

Shots: Fakel Voronezh 9, Baltika Kaliningrad 18; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Fakel Voronezh 0.10, Baltika Kaliningrad 0.60: a small edge for Baltika Kaliningrad. In the second half xG was Fakel Voronezh 0.54, Baltika Kaliningrad 1.36: a clear edge for Baltika Kaliningrad. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Fakel Voronezh scored 2 from 0.65 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Fakel Voronezh: −6.5 for the season (16 in the table). Baltika Kaliningrad: −6.1 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Zenit — Lokomotiv Moscow 2:1Dynamo Moscow — Orenburg 1:0CSKA Moscow — Rubin Kazan 1:1

All RPL matches with xG →