The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A draw, but Baltika Kaliningrad created more (1.96 xG against 0.65) — points dropped.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh | 2 | 0.65 | +1.4 | 0.54 |
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 2 | 1.96 | +0.0 | 2.26 |
Fakel Voronezh: −5.6 for the season (16 in the table). Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.