The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.20.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Moscow | 0 | 1.19 | −1.2 | 1.51 |
| Krylia Sovetov | 0 | 0.99 | −1.0 | 1.20 |
Dynamo Moscow: +3.5 for the season (3 in the table). Krylia Sovetov: −1.6 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.