The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Dynamo Makhachkala created more (0.84 xG against 0.47) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Makhachkala | 0 | 0.84 | −0.8 | 1.65 |
| Krasnodar | 1 | 0.47 | +0.5 | 0.96 |
Dynamo Makhachkala: −2.0 for the season (7 in the table). Krasnodar: +7.4 (1). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.