The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Fakel Voronezh: 43% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 1.29 and 1.21 expected goals a match. Fakel Voronezh are 5.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh | 16 | 9 | 3 | 8.6 | −5.6 | 0.82 | 1.37 |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 14 | 9 | 7 | 7.9 | −0.9 | 1.05 | 1.76 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.