The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Spartak Moscow are favourites: 55% to win against 20%. Attack against defence: Spartak Moscow should create more, 1.48 expected goals a match against 1.01. Krylia Sovetov are 1.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12.6 | −1.6 | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Spartak Moscow | 2 | 9 | 19 | 18.3 | +0.7 | 1.72 | 0.68 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.