Pitch Radar

Krasnodar vs Zenit: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 10 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win38%Krasnodar
Draw29%
Away win34%Zenit
Expected points, home1.42

What to expect

No clear favourite: 38% home, 29% draw, 34% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.14 and 1.23 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Krasnodar have taken 7.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Krasnodar192113.6+7.41.281.03
Zenit591815.1+2.91.441.00

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →