The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Zenit created more (1.21 xG against 1.05) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit | 1 | 1.21 | −0.2 | 1.48 |
| Rodina Moscow | 2 | 1.05 | +0.9 | 1.24 |
Zenit: +2.9 for the season (5 in the table). Rodina Moscow: −0.1 (15). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.