The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Bayer Leverkusen | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 5 | 6 |
| Points | 7 | 7 |
| xPTS | 9.6 | 8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −2.6 | −1.0 |
| xG per match | 2.61 | 2.63 |
| xGA per match | 0.85 | 1.55 |
| Scored | 10 | 10 |
| Conceded | 5 | 6 |
By quality of play Bayer Leverkusen is ahead: 9.6 xPTS against 8.0. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Bayer Leverkusen: −2.6, Mainz 05: −1.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Bayer Leverkusen — 10.9, Mainz 05 — 8.5.