The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Mainz 05 | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 6 | 7 |
| Points | 7 | 7 |
| xPTS | 8 | 3.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −1.0 | +3.6 |
| xG per match | 2.63 | 1.56 |
| xGA per match | 1.55 | 2.46 |
| Scored | 10 | 8 |
| Conceded | 6 | 7 |
By quality of play Mainz 05 is ahead: 8.0 xPTS against 3.4. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Mainz 05: −1.0, Elversberg: +3.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Mainz 05 — 8.5, Elversberg — 4.1.