The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Freiburg | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 3 | 4 |
| Points | 10 | 7 |
| xPTS | 8.8 | 4.7 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +1.2 | +2.4 |
| xG per match | 2.16 | 2.14 |
| xGA per match | 1.01 | 2.13 |
| Scored | 12 | 11 |
| Conceded | 3 | 6 |
By quality of play Freiburg is ahead: 8.8 xPTS against 4.7. In the table the gap is 3 points. The gap between points and play — Freiburg: +1.2, Augsburg: +2.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Freiburg — 9.2, Augsburg — 6.1.