The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Elversberg | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 7 | 8 |
| Points | 7 | 7 |
| xPTS | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.6 | +2.4 |
| xG per match | 1.56 | 1.32 |
| xGA per match | 2.46 | 1.58 |
| Scored | 8 | 8 |
| Conceded | 7 | 8 |
By quality of play Werder Bremen is ahead: 4.6 xPTS against 3.4. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Elversberg: +3.6, Werder Bremen: +2.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Elversberg — 4.1, Werder Bremen — 5.9.