Bayer Leverkusen

Next match

Paderborn · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 68% · draw 18% · defeat 14%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 16 points from 15.3 xPTS (+0.7). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 5th. Points match the quality of play. Inside that balance more goals conceded than expected (+2.3 vs xGA), but finishing runs above expectation (+1.1 vs xG) — one cancels the other.

Attack. 2.10 xG per match — 5th of 18 (league average 1.85): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 20 goals from 18.9 xG — finishing is on par. 3rd in the league for goals per match.

Defence. 1.63 xGA per match — 6th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 17 goals from 14.7 xGA — 16% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.

Playing to its level. Points (16) are close to the quality of play (15.3 xPTS).

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.78 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.82. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.1 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Bayer Leverkusen and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league