The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Borussia Dortmund | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 6 |
| Points | 12 | 7 |
| xPTS | 8.1 | 8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.9 | −1.0 |
| xG per match | 2.15 | 2.63 |
| xGA per match | 1.06 | 1.55 |
| Scored | 9 | 10 |
| Conceded | 2 | 6 |
By quality of play they are level: 8.1 xPTS against 8.0. The gap between points and play — Borussia Dortmund: +3.9, Mainz 05: −1.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Borussia Dortmund — 10.3, Mainz 05 — 8.5.