Points. 6 points from 2.4 xPTS (+3.6) — the biggest overperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 13th in the league, but 6th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+2.5 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−1.6 vs xGA).
Attack. 1.82 xG per match — 12th of 18 (league average 1.98): an average attack for this league. Scored 8 goals from 5.5 xG (+2.5): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 2.85 xGA per match — 14th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.98). Conceded 7 goals from 8.6 xGA — 1.6 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. And plenty of chances are allowed near their own goal — without this luck they would concede far more.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 1.20 per match: expected pace 0.8 points per match vs the current 2.0.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 2.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.89. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 4.5 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 | away | 2026-09-20 | 1.28 |
| Union Berlin | away | 2026-10-10 | 1.75 |
| Augsburg | home | 2026-10-17 | 0.85 |
| RB Leipzig | away | 2026-10-24 | 0.13 |
| Mainz 05 | home | 2026-10-31 | 0.44 |