Elversberg

Next match

Freiburg · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 20% · draw 21% · defeat 59%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

What the numbers say

Points. 13 points from 7.3 xPTS (+5.7) — the biggest overperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 17th in the league, but 7th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+3.3 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−3.4 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.52 xG per match — 14th of 18 (league average 1.85): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 17 goals from 13.7 xG — 24% more than expected. Finishing is clearly above par — some of these goals will probably stop going in.

Defence. 2.38 xGA per match — 17th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 18 goals from 21.4 xGA — 16% fewer than expected. The gap is small, still within the usual spread.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.63 per match: expected pace 0.8 points per match vs the current 1.4.

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.44 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.10. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.5 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Elversberg and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league