The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| 1. FC Köln | Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 13 | 14 |
| Points | 4 | 3 |
| xPTS | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −1.8 | −2.8 |
| xG per match | 2.24 | 2.18 |
| xGA per match | 2.17 | 2.09 |
| Scored | 6 | 7 |
| Conceded | 9 | 10 |
By quality of play they are level: 5.8 xPTS against 5.8. The gap between points and play — 1. FC Köln: −1.8, Hoffenheim: −2.8.
Expected points over the coming rounds: 1. FC Köln — 8.6, Hoffenheim — 8.5.