The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 14 | 15 |
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| xPTS | 5.8 | 3.6 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −2.8 | −0.6 |
| xG per match | 2.18 | 2.03 |
| xGA per match | 2.09 | 3 |
| Scored | 7 | 6 |
| Conceded | 10 | 9 |
By quality of play Hoffenheim is ahead: 5.8 xPTS against 3.6. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Hoffenheim: −2.8, VfB Stuttgart: −0.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Hoffenheim — 8.5, VfB Stuttgart — 6.7.