The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Toulouse | Nice | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 13 | 14 |
| Points | 5 | 5 |
| xPTS | 8.9 | 4.1 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.0 | +0.9 |
| xG per match | 2.12 | 1.09 |
| xGA per match | 1.66 | 1.96 |
| Scored | 7 | 3 |
| Conceded | 9 | 6 |
By quality of play Toulouse is ahead: 8.9 xPTS against 4.1. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Toulouse: −4.0, Nice: +0.9.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Toulouse — 9.8, Nice — 3.7.