The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Baltika Kaliningrad | Krylia Sovetov | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 8 | 9 |
| Points | 11 | 11 |
| xPTS | 16.2 | 12.6 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −5.2 | −1.6 |
| xG per match | 1.49 | 1.33 |
| xGA per match | 0.85 | 1.25 |
| Scored | 14 | 13 |
| Conceded | 12 | 14 |
By quality of play Baltika Kaliningrad is ahead: 16.2 xPTS against 12.6. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2, Krylia Sovetov: −1.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Baltika Kaliningrad — 9.4, Krylia Sovetov — 7.1.