The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Dynamo Makhachkala | Baltika Kaliningrad | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 7 | 8 |
| Points | 12 | 11 |
| xPTS | 14 | 16.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −2.0 | −5.2 |
| xG per match | 1.38 | 1.49 |
| xGA per match | 1.08 | 0.85 |
| Scored | 15 | 14 |
| Conceded | 16 | 12 |
By quality of play Baltika Kaliningrad is ahead: 16.2 xPTS against 14.0. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Dynamo Makhachkala: −2.0, Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Dynamo Makhachkala — 7.2, Baltika Kaliningrad — 9.4.